As investors eagerly await Twitter’s [NYSE:TWTR] long anticipated IPO, they can rest peacefully tonight knowing that the company’s IPO has finally been set at a share price of $26. This means that many people could theoretically afford this stock, if they can get in on the first few rounds of trading. Most institutions that handle IPOs tend to sell their first batches of stock to their preferred customers, followed by retail customers. What we’ll likely see is a nice jump on the share price in the first hour or two and then a steady increase in share price over the course of the day or a drop, like Facebook’s IPO.
Many people believed that Facebook’s IPO was overpriced and overvalued and the company struggled for almost a year to recover their share price from when the IPO had opened. I do not believe that Twitter will have the same problem as Facebook, even though they are both social media companies with large audiences but low revenues and profits (if any). Lots of Wall Street seems positive about buying into Twitter, especially with all of the talk about Facebook loosing a lot of their younger audience. Twitter doesn’t seem to have that issue, and the website appears to become more and more relevant in breaking news stories around the world.
Personally, I believe that Twitter’s valuation is one of the more fair valuations of companies in recent history, with some of the ludicrous valuations of social media platforms like Instagram and Facebook. At the price of $26, the proceeds of the sales of 70 million shares of common stock will net Twitter a total of $1.82 billion. This would put Twitter’s overall valuation at around $18 billion based on about 700 million fully diluted shares.
If you want to get in on the IPO tomorrow, you probably will have to sit in front of your desk and watch the price go up significantly before you can buy in. I suspect we will see a 15-20% jump in the share’s price by the end of the day, at the very least, conservatively. We could see as much as a jump of 25% depending on the irrational exuberance of investors. Hopefully people will keep their heads on their shoulders and not drive Twitter’s share price up so high that it has to come crashing down again.