Just as Intel’s (NASDAQ: INTC) CEO Brian Krzanich opens the regular staff meetings before a dramatically reduced IDF2015 Shenzhen conference, it is a good time to review how government and enterprises don’t see eye to eye when it comes to strategic business.

China’s Tianhe-2 supercomputer is world’s fastest supercomputer, at 33 PFLOPS demonstrated and 55 PFLOPS theoretical performance.

Remember the Tianhe-2 machine at Guangzhou Supercomputer Center, the current World’s number one according to Top 500 Supercomputer list? Unlike some other China supercomputers – Tianhe-2 is fully Intel based machine,  the world’s largest assembly of Intel Xeon CPUs and Xeon Phi accelerators.

Even after Intel ‘opened the kimono’ and gave a nearly 70%  discount on its processors and accelerators, it has given Intel, and therefore US technology sector a major foothold in China and Asian region as such. Over the course of past two years, we were involved in a lot of discussions with Intel staff who were not privy to see the financial impact of the deal — and even argued our undoubtedly solid information. We’re not here to report how things should be, or are in marketing and investor presentations to its numerous staff, but how things really are.

During 2015, the Tianhe-2 supercomputer was supposed to be doubled in its size, up to 110 PFLOPs peak, again using the very same Intel processors and accelerators. Since now these are mature products with lower real manufacturing cost for Intel, they could finally make some real money.

Well, it was not to be: our tweety bird from the window chirped to us that Uncle Sam has put this supercomputer centre, together with National University of Defense Technology in Changsha, the system’s creators, and Tianjin centre, among others, on so a so-called “Denial List”, which prevents any high technology from the USA to be sold to these sites. Our sources used even harsher words.

Knowing that these several sites alone are expected to order some 250+ PFLOPS of compute in the next few years (around 500,000 top-end Broadwell-EP Xeon E5v4 processors, or  approximately $1 billion high margin list price) and they were THE Intel friendly ones, this is quite a loss to Intel, thanks to Uncle Sam.

But, what’s worse strategic loss in time is that, based on this decision as an excuse, indigenous China high end processor architectures can now push the government to gradually remove any dependence on US. This means just one thing: an AMD or Intel x86 processor technology is increasingly becoming errata non grata. Should the Chinese government react in force, it will give the Chinese vendors the blank check support to go all the way a developing their Alpha, POWER and MIPS processors for both the government and the mainstream commercial use.

You may think they are not up to the mark, but remember how fast British ARM architecture became the dominant processing architecture in the world. And this group doesn’t need to worry about the antiquated x86 ISA, worry about satisfying the dumbed down shareholder masses, or overpaying their marketing and sales staff, as well as the fat check, golden parachute-protected CxOs.

They have taken the best that the USA has developed (some of key Alpha, GPGPU and MIPS architects left US over the course of past four years, a lot of them due to non-renewed visas) and discarded due to corporate shenanigans, and the continued developing it much farther than anyone expected both on hardware and software side.

Five years ago, ShenWei showed a CPU that performed faster than the fastest GPUs of the time. Now, fifth generation is approaching, slotting between Tesla and FirePro GPGPUs and next-gen Xeon Phi accelerators. However, this is not an accelerator or a GPGPU – this is a CPU.

So, thanks to Uncle Sam, China might not have a 110 PFLOPS Intel based supercomputer but it definitely will launch a 100 PFLOPS system based on upcoming 64-core, TFLOPS-class ShenWei Alpha, with true blue CPUs possibly faster per socket then even the next generation Xeon Phi or Volta/Pascal-based Teslas.  Next, of course 100 PFLOPS Chinese POWER8 or 9 — (thank you IBM) and then possibly even Loongson MIPS – -it may come back into the high end field with renewed government support because of this Uncle Sam move. All are clean, elegant, scalable high end RISC architectures.

So who are the winners and losers from this?

NUDT and Tianhe may be the losers for now, but only short term. They will simply speed up their HPC ARM plan.

Intel comes out the big loser from this and a lot: who will want to do a phased deployment large x86 machine in China now, and worry about future phases? Then comes Uncle Sam himself: they lost even that little bit of influence on the high end China HPC. How is that for “cutting your nose to spite your face?”.

VR WORLD’s  Analysis: US government moves accelerate the Chinese CPU roadmap while curtailing juiciest sales for Intel and other US vendors.

The post Uncle Sam Shocks Intel With a Ban on Xeon Supercomputers in China appeared first on VR World.

Read VR World’s full interview with Prof. Jack Dongarra here. 

Countries around the world, particularly emerging markets, all would love to have a top 100 supercomputer. Being able to have a supercomputer that ranks in the top 100, or even the top 10, would be a national showpiece – a sign of technological might – and would please many of the country’s politicians.

The United States is the world’s dominate high performance computing power, as it has more supercomputers in the top 500 list than any other single country, but China would like to challenge this hegemony. After all, China has the world’s fastest supercomputer, Tianhe-2 , at the National Supercomputer Center at Sun Yat-sen University in Guangzhou.

But in an exclusive interview with VR World, Dr. Jack Dongarra of Oak Ridge National Laboratory and the University of Tennessee, said that China’s HPC stature may be something of a facade. Tianhe-2, while definitely the world’s fastest supercomputer, is somewhat idle and is not being used to its full capacity.

“The real question is: what are they going to use the machine for. I question, at some level, what the Chinese are doing with these big machines,” Dongarra said. “They are are not using the accelerator part of the machine.” [48,000 Intel Xeon Phi 31S1P Accelerator cards].

“I go visit the computing facilities [in China] – and I’m not saying that they are being used for things that are secret – I’m saying that I don’t know what they are being used for,” he continued.

Dongarra explained that part of the reason why Tianhe-2 is more idle than other top supercomputers is because of the funding model China’s government provides. The government paid for the costs to develop and construct the machine, but not for its operational costs which is not the norm in the scientific computing community.

The additional difficulty might be the machine setup China decided to go with. Intel’s (NASDAQ: INTC) Xeon Phi hasn’t proven itself in ease of use when compared to pure CPU code or accelerated code through GPGPU accelerators such as the Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) Tesla or AMD (NASDAQ: AMD) FirePro S Series.

“They have to come up with some mechanism to pay for it,” Dongarra said. “In scientific computing we don’t pay for computing time. It’s not in the culture of how we do business. A situation where people have to pay for computing time limits the computing time being used.”

The post Jack Dongarra: China Isn’t the Emerging HPC Power You Think It Is appeared first on VR World.